Against the tides of expectations, the bond between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin remains robust. In a warm gesture, Putin communicated his thoughts through a skilled Hindi interpreter, visibly delighting the Indian Prime Minister. Modi lauded Russia as a ‘Sukh-dukh ka saathi’ (an all-weather friend). The visit by Modi rejuvenated the almost twenty-five-year tradition of annual summits, disrupted since 2020 due to the pandemic and the Ukraine conflict.
Geopolitics has always been the cornerstone of the India-Russia alliance. In the tumultuous 1960s and 1970s, facing an aggressive China and its rapprochement with the US, India and Russia cultivated a comprehensive strategic partnership. Today, the geopolitical landscape is far more intricate. Russia and China have grown closer, primarily to counterbalance an unpredictable and often adversarial United States.
However, contrary to popular belief, Russia is not morphing into China’s junior partner. This notion is unfounded. Russia has shown remarkable resilience, standing firm against NATO in Ukraine and absorbing nearly 16,000 Western economic sanctions. As per World Bank data released in June, Russia ranks as the world’s fourth-largest economy, following China, the US, and India, based on GDP measured by purchasing power parity.
Russia’s pride, independence, and formidable military strength ensure it avoids subordination to any nation, including China. Russia’s grand strategy involves balancing US influence, stabilizing the power structure in Eurasia and Asia, and fostering a multipolar world by actively collaborating with the Global South. India, in alignment with this vision, aims to deepen its economic ties with Russia, providing an alternative to China’s dominance in Russian markets.
How do Washington and Beijing perceive this summit? Critics argue that Modi’s moves undermine the US partnership and fail to impact Sino-Russian relations. This analysis, however, lacks nuance and context, overlooking India’s geostrategic priorities.
A more transactional dynamic with the US has been apparent for a while. Two decades ago, the consensus was that US support was crucial for India’s rise as a major power. Today, this perspective seems outdated. Recent actions by Washington suggest it views India more as a strategic tool against China rather than as an autonomous power with its own aspirations. This stance unsettles Indian strategists, who fear that the US may not back its tough rhetoric on China if a serious conflict occurs in the Himalayas. Furthermore, there’s concern that India might be dragged into an undesirable Sino-American military confrontation in the Western Pacific. This is a critical reason for India’s strategic shift towards the non-Western world, with renewed ties with Moscow portraying India as a more independent actor on the global stage.
China’s growing alliance with Russia stems from fears that a proxy conflict, similar to Ukraine, could arise in the Taiwan Straits. Beijing might even prefer prolonged conflict in Ukraine to bog down US focus away from the Western Pacific. Thus, China is unlikely to sever its ties with Russia soon. The only viable strategy to influence Sino-Russian relations would be for the West to abandon its confrontational posture and negotiate a European security framework that accommodates Russia’s core interests. However, the current political climate in the US leaves little room for such optimism.
Interestingly, Beijing views the strengthening of India-Russia relations favorably, as it contributes to regional and continental stability. India’s assertion of geopolitical independence means it is less inclined to support the US’s Cold War mentality regarding Asia. Additionally, Russia provides India with strategic reassurance due to its supportive stance on Indian interests in the subcontinent. While Russia may not publicly take sides in the India-China border dispute, it encourages its key partners to manage their differences maturely, as demonstrated by its constructive role post-2020 Ladakh crisis.
The India-Russia relationship remains a crucial geopolitical stabilizer, offering Delhi significant leverage during this period of transformative global dynamics. Modi’s visit sends a clear message of India’s commitment to a multipolar world and its steadfast progression towards being a formidable global power.
Disclaimer
Views expressed above are the author’s own.
