How Donald Trump’s Volatility Can Impact Financial Markets
Donald Trump’s from-the-hip style may start making financial markets volatile again — and that’s just fine for a breed of global fast-money traders who thrive on that.
With him and President Joe Biden running neck-and-neck ahead of their first debate Thursday night, investors have already been trying to game out how the Republican’s return to the White House could affect everything from the electric-vehicle industry to the direction of long-term interest rates.
Markets, as a rule, don’t like that kind of uncertainty. But for a subset of hedge funds that swoop in and out whenever big swings and anomalies make prices look briefly out of whack, that’s almost beside the point.
What they see in Trump is far more simple: Memories of the opportunities that arose during his four years in office, when his comments and social-media posts sometimes surprised investors, triggering dramatic short-term moves in the prices of stocks, bonds, and currencies.
“Politics aside, if you ask a trader whether he wants placid Biden or stormy Trump, the trader is going big wave surfing – so it’s Trump,” said Calvin Yeoh, portfolio manager at hedge fund Blue Edge Advisors in Singapore. “Trump is more volatile and unpredictable.”
During the Biden years, of course, there’s been no shortage of volatility. The inflation surge, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes all did plenty to whipsaw markets.
Yet Biden has hewed to a traditional style honed by a decades-long career in Washington. By contrast, Trump relished communicating directly with the public through Twitter posts, leaving traders scrambling to determine the implications.
Even some investors with a longer-term, fundamentals-driven approach expect a political shakeup under Trump to create ways to profit.
The US election campaign will likely draw more attention from Wall Street as Election Day gets closer and policy positions become a more prominent part of the contest. Trump and Republicans have already made clear that they will push to renew sweeping tax cuts put in place in 2017.
Trump is also expected to seek to more aggressively deport those working in the US illegally and has called for tariffs on imports. Both of those could put upward pressure on inflation, potentially resetting the market’s expectations for interest-rate cuts.
“You have to address the elephant in the room, that no matter what happens in the scenario that Trump wins — everything that he says will be amplified in North America and globally,” said George Boubouras, head of research at hedge fund K2 Asset Management Ltd. “We in markets love volatility — but we do try not to get too hung up on the amplified emotion that will come from a Trump presidency.”